Realignment - Oklahoma State has options
By all indications, the next round of conference realignment is upon us. What's not clear is if this is "the big one" or a less major re-shuffling.
In either event, Oklahoma State will have options. Its football team brings eyeballs from non-Cowboy fans around the country. Basketball is on the upswing and the athletic department programs as a whole are very competitive nationally.
With that in mind, we'll run down those options here. In the below, there is some simple logic, source information, opinion and some educated guesses. One assumption that is made throughout is that Oklahoma and Texas are leaving the Big 12.
Option 1: This is going to occur and most fans won't like it. That's making an attempt to save the Big 12. The eight remaining teams have varying degrees of motivation to do this, dependent on what options they know or think they have.
The problems with this option are multiple. For one thing, even without the Red River Rivalry schools having one foot out of the door, the Big 12 is already the smallest Power 5 conference. Going back to 10 teams wouldn't make any sense. As for replacement teams, the ONLY ways it makes sense to save the league is if A) No other realignment occurs and the 8 remaining teams have no options or B) replacing the two departing schools with replacements that are equal in prestige and television eyeballs. I'm not going to spend any more time on option A, as it is exceedingly unlikely that all 8 left will not have anyone courting them. So that leaves B. It almost goes without saying that no two other blueblood football programs are leaving their existing situation for a wounded Big 12. Given that, you have to come up with more than two teams to equal what is leaving. About the only realistic options (and that's probably a stretch) would be former Big 12 members that are not happy in their new situations. For example, Nebraska and Missouri have struggled competitively in the B1G and SEC, respectively. Texas A&M is furious that they might be stuck in a conference and division with Texas again. If there is interest from all three of those schools, then there is something to delve into. If probably even one says no thanks, it's time to dissolve the Big 12 and becomes every man (school) for himself, to a degree. Some cooperation is already occurring with the leftover Texas (Tech, TCU and Baylor) schools opening dialogue with the PAC-12, for example.
Option 2: The other power conferences.
B1G: We are starting here because OSU fans need to dismiss this thought from their minds, for numerous reasons. The biggest is that OSU's academics simply do not fit the B1G model. While academics and research are steadily improving in Stillwater, it's not an AAU-accredited school. And that's a deal-breaker for the former Big 10 when looking at possible additions. UT, ISU and KU are the only AAU's in the current Big 12. The latter two might well end up here.
SEC: So, you're telling me there is a chance? Yes, there is. It revolves entirely around one thing: What Texas's true goal is. If their end game is to end up as an Independent, there's the chance. UT goes Indy and the SEC adds the Oklahoma schools. If UT's end goal is truly the SEC, any chance for OSU here is almost certainly out of the question, as it would put the SEC past 16 teams to add three Big 12 schools.
PAC-12: In the last round of realignment, the Cowboys nearly headed west. That could happen again, with OSU joining the leftover Texas schools to put the PAC at 16 members. That would newly-form an eastern division that would almost certainly include Colorado, Utah and the two Arizona schools. Of the three real possibilities, this is the least desirable outcome for OSU, but would most certainly be better than a zombie Big 12 or Group of 5 destination.
ACC: There is mutual interest here and discussions are moving at a fast pace. The most likely scenario would see OSU and fellow Big 12 school West Virginia joining the ACC, moving it to 16. The one potential hurdle is that Notre Dame surely would be asked again to become a full member of the ACC (they are currently football Independent). As they have always done, it seems most likely the Irish would opt to stay that way. If they happened to change their mind, then it would come down to WVU versus OSU. How that decision-making process might go is anyone's guess. The Mountaineers are certainly a better fit geographically. OSU football draws more viewers nationally and generally offers better programs across the board.
Obviously there are many, many, many factors at play here and it is a very fluid situation. The crux of it comes down to a few things:
1. Are OU and Texas really leaving this time?
2. Is UT's end game to go Independent?
3. Does #1 prompt all other P5 conferences to finally make the move to 16 schools?
The answer to #1 by all appearances is a bolded YES. If #3's answer is also yes, then there is no saving the Big 12 to be had in any viable form.
So, what's next for OSU? There will be numerous phone calls, zoom and in-person meetings, both inside and out of the Big12. And do not forget the TV networks, who are the biggest players of all.
One thing you can count on is that nothing will happen until OU and UT formalize their departures. That move puts the Big 12 school's Grant of Rights into serious turmoil and brings dissolution to the forefront. At that point, if all or most of the remaining 8 schools have actionable offers to a conference they find suitable, you will see the dominos fall very quickly.
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